Oscar Nominations Prediction
The first Oscars-edition of the newsletter predicts the big eight awards ahead of the March 15th announcement.
I genuinely wish I did not care about the Oscars as much as I do. Every year I get excited that maybe this year will be different, and the nominees and winners won’t let me down, and nearly every year, I am disappointed in some capacity. For some reason, I still care about it, so much so that I am going to do a handful of Oscar-related newsletters over the next eight weeks. On the bright side, the Parasite win last year has me feeling better, and this year looks promising potentially.
I decided to predict the nominees for the big eight awards because going through all 24 categories would be boring to read. I also think it would be irresponsible, considering I haven’t seen a fair amount in categories like live-action short or animated feature. I will make my full predictions of who will win each category as we get closer to the ceremony on April 25th.
Best Supporting Actor
I don’t think this one has a clear favorite for who is going to win next month, but I think the five nominees are more set in stone than most of the other categories. I know Sacha Baron Cohen won a couple of Golden Globes because of Borat and not because of Trial of The Chicago 7, but the best actor field is loaded, and I feel like The Academy will want to honor him in some way, so they’ll nominate him here. Similarly to Sacha, Chadwick Boseman won a Golden Globe for his work in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and (spoiler alert) I think the Oscars will nominate him for Best Actor as well. He would be just the 13th person to be nominated for lead and supporting in the same year and the first person to win both if he does that next month. Daniel Kaluuya’s Golden Globe came in this category for Judas & The Black Messiah, and he feels like a lock to get nominated for it here. Leslie Odom Jr was the best part of One Night in Miami, and I have the feeling that the Oscars will give that film a handful of nominations. Paul Raci will probably receive the final spot for Sound of Metal, and he was good in it, but I would love it if Yahya Abdul-Mateen got recognized for his performance as Bobby Seale in Trail Of The Chicago 7, even though I know that won’t happen.
Best Supporting Actress
This was the most challenging category for me to narrow down. I think Amanda Seyfried (for Mank), Maria Bakalova (for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), and Yuh-Jung Youn (for Minari) are all locks. That could just be me being optimistic after rewatching Minari, but I feel like it is having a moment right now, and she was excellent in it. I have five people for the final two spots. Despite being unable to watch The Father for another few weeks, the buzz has been really good, and the Oscars love Olivia Colman, so she gets one of those final spots. The last spot comes down to Glenn Close, Ellen Burstyn, Jodie Foster, and even though she won’t get nominated, I am going to throw in Talia Ryder because she was tremendous in Never Rarely Sometimes Always and deserves it over the other three, IMO. That all being said, I am going with Jodie Foster because of her Golden Globes win and the timing of The Mauritanian press junket overlapping with Oscar voting.
Best Actor
The Oscars have one job. If Chadwick Boseman doesn’t win, then it is officially time to end the Oscars; sorry, I don’t make the rules here. It is the easiest thing the voting body can do, and despite their awful history with race in this category (and all categories, if we’re being honest). A black man has won best actor four times in the Oscars’ 92-year history, which, uhhh, isn’t great. I know this isn’t the winner’s newsletter, but please give it to Chadwick. As for the rest of the nominees here, Anthony Hopkins and Gary Oldman are in, because of course, they are. As I mentioned earlier, Minari is having a moment, and I think that will translate to Steven Yeun getting a much-deserved nomination. I believe Riz Ahmed will get the final spot, with Delroy Lindo being the potential spoiler.
Best Actress
This feels like four people are virtual locks, with about four other people fighting for that final spot. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman, and Frances McDormand in Nomadland are 100% in. I feel like Vanessa Kirby is as close as you can get to a lock, but something in my gut is a little nervous that the Oscars are somehow going to snub her remarkable performance in Pieces of a Woman; nonetheless, she is on the list. It is the final spot that seems fairly up in the air. It was a whole lot more up in the air before the Golden Globes. We had Zendaya buzz for a while that I think has died down because of the poor reception to Malcolm & Marie. Amy Adams and Rosamund Pike are candidates in their (bad) Netflix movies. Sidney Flanigan should get the final spot, but ultimately I think it is going to go to Andra Day for The United States Vs. Billie Holiday.
Best Adapted Screenplay
I would be willing to bet now that this will be my worst category. It is seemingly wide open, and I can’t get any read on it. The one safe bet is Chloé Zhao because of how many awards Nomadland is likely going to be up for. Kemp Powers seems to still have some leftover momentum from One Night In Miami. After that, it gets weird, and I would not be surprised if I only got two right in this category. Charlie Kaufman already has an Oscar under his belt, so I’m going to give him another nomination for I’m Thinking Of Ending Things. As I mentioned in regards to Olivia Colman, The Father seems to have buzz, so despite being unable to see it, I will say that Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller will get nominated for it. I have three options for the final spot. I personally would give it to Kelly Reichardt for First Cow or Ruben Santiago-Hudson for Ma Rainey’s, but I think the Oscars will give it to Sacha Baron Cohen and company for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Original Screenplay
For as thin as Best Adapted Screenplay is, Best Original is the complete opposite. I might be too optimistic with this category, but it could turn out to be very representative of some of the best movies of the year that might not get recognized as much in other categories, similar to how Jordan Peele won here in 2017 and Greta Gerwig got nominated in Screenplay last year despite not getting a best director nom. Eliza Hittman seems most likely to repeat Gerwig’s fate. I would be stunned if Never Rarely Sometimes Always got any other nominations (some voters have even hinted at such), but it is undoubtedly one of the best screenplays of the year, and for some reason, I am allowing myself to be optimistic that Hittman will receive her first nomination. I think that Emerald Fennell, Lee Isaac Chung, and Shaka King & Co will also receive their first Oscar nominations. On the flip side of that, Aaron Sorkin is going to pick up his fourth nomination. If my hopes and dreams don’t come true and Hittman gets snubbed, I could see Jack Fincher getting nominated for Mank.
Director
As it does in most years, this is going to look similar to the Screenplay categories. Chloé Zhao and Aaron Sorkin are in. Lee Isaac Chung seems to be riding a ridiculous amount of momentum right now. Now it comes down to how the Oscars want to handle things and if last year’s Bong Joon-ho win was the way forward or a fluke. Before last year I would tell you David Fincher and Paul Greengrass (News of The World) would get these final two spots, maybe even Shaka King, but I think the Oscars have done a good job diversifying their voting body, but I guess we’ll see in this category. I could be wrong, and the Oscars could continue to be who they have always been for the previous 92 years, but I would rather be optimistic than boring, so I am going to go with Emerald Fennell and Regina King. Three women nominated for best director would equal the number of women nominated from 1929 until 2009. I am sure they won’t do it, but I want to believe they will until they prove me wrong once again.
Best Picture
This entire category comes down to asking if last year was an anomaly or the way forward. It is so easy to get caught up in the Parasite excitement that you forget that this is the same organization that gave Green Book Best Picture the prior year. I don’t know if we’ll be able to tell which way the Oscars are going now purely based on the nominations unless we have some egregious choices.
Since 2011 The Academy has nominated either eight or nine films for best picture. I will mention 12 films for the sake of argument., but it would not stun me to see only six or seven just because of how weird this season has been. Trial Of The Chicago 7, Mank, and The Father feel like the most “Oscar bait” films imaginable, so they’re in. Nomadland, Minari, Promising Young Woman, and One Night In Miami have all picked up quite a few honors along the awards circuit; I think they’re safely in; Nomadland especially. I feel reasonably good about Judas & The Black Messiah because of some of the acting awards and how vigorously Warner Bros has campaigned. However, it is a very political film that I worry could alienate some (old white men) voters. If Judas is nominated, it’ll be the first film in the 93-year history of the Oscars to get nominated (not win, just nominated) for Best Picture with all black producers. Those will probably be the final set of nominees, but Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Sound of Metal could also sneak in if they end up nominating ten films. News of The World also seemed like a strong contender a few months ago but has seemingly lost some momentum down the stretch, but we’ll see. Honorable mention for Never Rarely Sometimes Always because I have to stay on brand.
Next week I will dive into the Oscar nominations and look at snubs, surprises, and what it means going forward. I am also very excited to talk about some of the other nominees I didn’t predict today. Hopefully, I’ll also be able to talk about how the Oscars decided to nominate a bunch of women and people of color and had no controversy at all. I can dream.