Oscar Nominations Predictions 2022
Oscar SZN is back. Predictions on 20 Oscar categories before tomorrow morning's announcement.
I don’t want to do a long introduction, so I have little blurbs under each prediction to explain my rationale. Last year I only did the big eight categories and went 36/43. I am hoping to improve on that this year. I did not include the shorts in my predictions, so it is 20 of the 23 categories. Nominations are announced tomorrow morning, with the ceremony on March 27th.
Best Picture
Licorice Pizza
Dune
Power of the Dog
Belfast
King Richard
Don’t Look Up
West Side Story
CODA
Tick, Tick… Boom
Drive My Car
The first eight feel like absolute locks. It is sort of funny that this is the first year the Oscars are guaranteed to have ten nominations because those final two feel real up in the air. I think voters will love Andrew Garfield enough for Tick, Tick… Boom to get in. The more pragmatic pick for the final spot is probably Being The Ricardos, but for some reason, I feel hopeful the Academy will pick the better movie and go with Drive My Car. Fully prepared to wake up disappointed.
Best Director
Jane Campion
Paul Thomas Anderson
Denis Villeneuve
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Kenneth Branagh
This comes down to a battle between Hamaguchi and Steven Spielberg. Once again, I know the smarter move is to pick against Drive My Car, but even if it gets snubbed in Best Picture, it feels like the Academy could award it with a consolation prize here. Thomas Vinterberg receiving a Best Director nomination last year for Another Round has me feeling even better here.
Best Actor
Will Smith
Andrew Garfield
Benedict Cumberbatch
Denzel Washington
Leonardo DiCaprio
The last spot could be very indicative of the Best Picture race. If Javier Bardem sneaks in, then I would imagine Being The Ricardos would get a Best Picture nomination. The same could be said of Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley A Leo nom likely says that Don’t Look Up is a legit contender to win Best Picture. The same could be said for Licorice Pizza if Cooper Hoffman or Belfast if Jude Hill gets the final spot. Peter Dinklage in Cyrano is the only one that would have no impact on the Best Picture race.
Best Actress
Olivia Colman
Nicole Kidman
Lady Gaga
Penelope Cruz
Kristen Stewart
I have no idea here. If you had asked me a month ago, I would’ve said Kristen was the only lock, and now she’s the one I feel most unsure about. The name I have seen mentioned the most for the final spot is Jennifer Hudson, but I think Emilia Jones from CODA is much more likely, especially after her BAFTA nomination. A nomination for Jones could portend good things for CODA next month. I am praying that Renate Reinsve sneaks in for her performance in The Worst Person In The World. I would also accept an Alana Haim nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee
Troy Kotsur
Bradley Cooper
Ciarán Hines
Jared Leto
Jared Leto is really going to get a Razzie and Oscar nomination for the same performance. Good for him.
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana Debose
Kirsten Dunst
Caitriona Balfe
Aunjanue Ellis
Jessie Buckley
I am likely being too optimistic about The Lost Daughter here. I wanted to put it in the Best Picture race, but I find it unlikely. Still, if the Academy is as big of a fan of it as I am projecting, then Jessie Buckley makes a lot of sense for the final spot. The more likely result is that Ruth Negga gets it for her performance in Passing.
Best Original Screenplay
Licorice Pizza
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Being The Ricardos
Parallel Mothers
I am much more intrigued by the winner of this one than the nominations. The last spot is likely between King Richard and Parallel Mothers. If any of the first three somehow don’t get a nomination, that is likely the end of any serious Best Picture run.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Drive My Car
Power of the Dog
Dune
CODA
The Lost Daughter
By far the best collection of films of any category, IMO. Beyond just having five of the best movies of the year here, it is also dope to see three women and a Japanese man nominated in this category. West Side Story would be the potential spoiler here.
Best Animated Feature
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Encanto
Flee
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
I came incredibly close to picking Belle over Raya and the Last Dragon, but at the end of the day, Disney is Disney, and it is hard to beat that. Raya is also much more accessible right now. Belle deserves the final spot, though.
Best International Feature
Drive My Car
The Worst Person In The World
Flee
A Hero
The Hand of God
I will probably regret saying this, but I think this is the most confident category. Drive My Car and The Worst Person In The World has gotten the most buzz of any international duo since the Parasite and Portrait of a Lady on Fire cycle. The accessibility of the other three and two of them coming from world-class directors seemingly has this category locked up. I can’t wait for the next six weeks of people finally seeing two of the best movies of the year as they become more readily available in Drive My Car and The Worst Person In The World.
Best Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul
Flee
The Rescue
Ascension
Attica
This is a race between Attica and Procession for the final spot. I think Attica is “easier” to get through, even though both are absolutely brutal, and Attica seems more timely. Fully expect to get this one wrong.
Best Cinematography
Dune
West Side Story
Power of the Dog
Belfast
The Tragedy of Macbeth
I want to put Licorice Pizza in here so bad. I just could not find a spot for it if things go how I expect them to go. I guess it could take Balfast’s spot if the Academy is a little lukewarm on it. I know it doesn’t significantly impact the higher-profile awards typically, but this seems like a spot to look at potentially to see how the Academy is feeling about some of the legit contenders.
Best Costume Design
Dune
Cruella
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
Cruella is going to end up with more Oscar nominations than Titane. What a world.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Dune
Cruella
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
A second Cruella nomination. Neat.
Best Film Editing
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
Missing out on a nomination here almost always extinguishes any hope of a Best Picture win. Since 1981, only one Best Picture winner was not nominated for Best Editing. That one movie was Birdman, which had no obvious editing as it was made to look like one continuous shot. I don’t know if that played a role, but I ended up having the top five contenders in my mind for this category.
Best Original Score
Power of the Dog
Dune
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
No Time to Die
Spencer should get the final spot. There’s a chance that Spencer gets completely shut out, which is wild for a movie that on paper looked like it would have at least five nominations before it came out.
Best Original Song
No Time to Die
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Respect
CODA
We don’t talk about Bruno (because Disney did not submit it)
Best Production Design
Dune
Power of the Dog
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Belfast
Similar to Cinematography, this one could be one to watch to see how the Academy feels about a few contenders. Licorice Pizza sneaking in for The French Dispatch could be an excellent sign for later in the night.
Best Sound
Dune
West Side Story
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Tick, Tick… Boom
Power of the Dog
It probably doesn’t really matter, but Tick, Tick… Boom not getting this would make me feel not great about its chances for a Best Picture nomination.
Best Visual Effects
Dune
No Time to Die
The Matrix Resurrection
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Remind me not to watch every movie in this category next year. Praying this is the final five, so I don’t have to watch anything else nominated for visual effects.
I have a watch guide coming after the nominations are announced tomorrow for where you can watch every single movie.